The recently-incarcerated former congressman allegedly placed bets on himself, then acted to ensure he won.
The Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have opened investigations into former congressman George Santos regarding alleged insider trading, according to NPR. The alleged scheme was both ridiculous and brazen, a hallmark of Santos.
Here's how it reportedly went down. Santos allegedly gamed the betting market Kalshi by making a video indicating he would be attending President Trump's State of the Union address back in February. "I'm going to be there for the State of Union in the gallery, guys," he said in a video originally posted to X.
State of the union update! pic.twitter.com/y9nrYpCyU4
— George Santos (@Georgesantos) February 23, 2026
Betters on Kalshi and Polymarket had been having a field day predicting who would attend the SOTU address. The Santos video sent odds of his attendance soaring. This means that people who bet against his appearance would stand to make a pretty penny. You know where this is going.
He didn't show. "Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML," Santos wrote on X. He posted this as Trump spoke, so the odds he would appear at the address plummeted.
Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML 😡🤬
— George Santos (@Georgesantos) February 24, 2026
However, there was something he didn't say on X. Santos had allegedly placed bets on Kalshi that he wasn't going to attend, according to three people with direct knowledge of the trades who spoke to NPR. These sources say he made tens of thousands of dollars while stuck watching that airport TV. "FML" indeed.
Kalshi detected the trades, froze his account and referred the incident to the DOJ and the CFTC. The organizations haven't issued an update as to where these cases stand. Santos, for his part, played dumb and told NPR that he had no idea there even was an active probe into his conduct on Kalshi. "I'm not saying yes, I'm not saying no," he said when asked if he had a Kalshi account.
He also suggested that Luana Lopes Lara, a cofounder of Kalshi, is a "fellow Brazilian" and a personal friend. Reporting has indicated that Santos does not, in fact, know Lara. Santos is the son of Brazilian immigrants, but was born in New York. He also lies about pretty much everything.
His lies eventually caught up with him. Santos was hit with 13 counts of wire fraud, money laundering and stealing money from political donors while serving as a congressman. He was expelled from Congress and received a sentence of more than seven years in prison. Trump commuted his sentence (game recognizes game) so he only served four months behind bars. Now he's back (allegedly) doing this kind of thing. He's also on Cameo for around $300 a pop, to sate "fans looking to add a touch of Santos sparkle to their special occasions."
This is yet another cautionary tale behind the rise of online gambling platforms. If people can rig something for money, they will. This is pretty scary when you consider that people bet on real world events that impact millions of people, like the outcome of wars and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Santos is an easy punching bag, being as how he has spent the past several years being the physical embodiment of Pinocchio. However, I find it slightly rich that the DOJ and CFTC have singled him out for insider trading when, you know, it's pretty much an epidemic across the entire political system.
President Trump and his inner circle are perhaps the most cogent example of this. Throughout his second term in office, traders have had a tendency to place bets totaling millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements. The BBC followed consistent spikes of trading timed hours or minutes before a significant announcement was made via social media or a televised interview.
