Rising gas prices are good news for EV sales, for now

It’s become an American truism: Once you buy an SUV, there’s no going back. And our love affair with pickups has been documented in a million country songs and TV commercials.

But a brutal spike in gasoline prices — nipping $4 nationwide for a gallon of unleaded, up from $3 when the bombs first began to fall on Iran — has some car shoppers considering energy-saving alternatives.

Tomi Mikula is the founder of Delivrd, a car-buying consultancy that’s built a following through hardball negotiations with dealers on behalf of buyers. Among customers, “We’ve seen a big transition to hybrids especially in just the past few weeks,” Mikula says. “There’s definitely a heightened awareness of fuel economy; way more conversations about it than when gas was $2 a gallon.”

Just before I spoke with Mikula, he closed a deal on a Hyundai Ioniq 9 Calligraphy, the brand’s top-shelf, three-row electric SUV. Mikula managed to knock $12,000 off the roughly $77,000 price, on behalf of a Michigan family that was trading in a gasoline Toyota SUV.

“They needed a three-row SUV, and really wanted to get into an EV, because they were so sick of these rising gas prices,” Mikula says. It typically takes four to six months of sustained high fuel prices to spark a real exodus to economical models.

Mikula says shoppers are focusing more on the fuel-efficient versions of various models, such as the Toyota RAV4 hybrid.

Toyota had taken a beating from the media and environmental groups for resisting the EV transition. But its crystal ball now appears in solid working order. Toyota embarked on a strategy to build several models — including the Land Cruiser, Sienna, Camry and RAV4 — in exclusively hybrid form. The Camry and RAV4, respectively, are America’s perennially bestselling sedan and SUV, which made that strategy a potential risk. Now, Mikula says that hybrid-only 2026 RAV4 is already in unusually short supply, which he attributes in part to consumers seeking a hedge against fuel prices.

“Dealerships are getting slim on hybrid inventory” for some other models as well, Mikula says.

Soaring gasoline prices threaten to spike Americans’ fuel bills by $9.4 billion a month, according to an analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. That’s an average of $34 in added monthly costs for every person of driving age. Californians are in a special class of hurt, shelling out $5.84 a gallon on average, and $6.27 for premium.

Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds, says that even owners of typical SUVs are seeing fill-ups of $100 or more in California. Drury’s colleague recently hit that magic $100 number when she filled her BMW X3 with premium fuel. There’s something about those spinning pump dials that hits consumers hard, in ways that other inflationary purchases do not.

“There’s the price of eggs and the price of gas,” Drury says. “You want to light the American consumer on fire, mess with the price of those things.”

Before the price spike, 9.5 percent of car shoppers on Edmunds were considering buying an EV. That has risen to 12 percent of shoppers, a nearly 20-percent gain. Drury cautions it typically takes four to six months of sustained high fuel prices to spark a real exodus to economical models.

“The seeds are planted, but they haven’t sprouted yet,” Drury says. “A crisis has to be long enough, high enough, and sharp enough to make people say, ‘No more ICE for me,’” a reference to internal combustion engines.

Many car owners, he says, are better off riding out this storm, rather than overreacting by trading to a new car — especially because they’ll face both high prices and interest rates. Fuel savings won’t offset that.

“The answer to $5-a-gallon gas is never a $50,000 purchase,” Drury says. “If you have a low-APR car loan today, be happy with that.”

Yet for owners coming off leases, or otherwise already in the market, “Gas prices could definitely push people off the fence to a hybrid or EV,” he says.

Experts see some silver linings in today’s crisis, versus previous eras. Thanks in part to fuel-economy regulations, today’s car-based SUVs and even pickups return noticeably better mileage. That can help owners and commuters tough it out during a price jump, without ditching a thirsty model that threatens to blow their budget.

Many legacy automakers have cancelled EV projects and written off tens of billions of dollars in EV losses. They planned on making some of that back via windfall profits on big, gasoline-powered SUVs and trucks, driven by the Trump administration’s anti-EV, pro-petroleum policies. Detroit automakers are not alone here.

Yet Drury agrees a sustained run of high gas prices would leave Detroit especially vulnerable. Stellantis, Ford, and General Motors have virtually abandoned passenger cars, including frugal sedans, hatchbacks, and hybrids.

Ford’s impressive Maverick hybrid might weather any fuel crisis with its real-world, 40-mpg economy, though that’s a compact pickup. GM, to its credit, offers several affordable EVs, including the Chevrolet Equinox, Blazer, and reborn 2027 Bolt.

Yet brands such as Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, and Kia could steal market share if gas prices don’t ease up. Those Japanese and Korean automakers have kept the faith with traditional passenger cars, whose lighter weights and smoother aerodynamic profiles will always beat the fuel economy of a comparable, taller SUV. These brands have also steadily expanded their hybrid offerings.

Experts say buyers looking for relief might consider economical used cars, including EVs that offer a triple whammy: massive savings versus a new car (at an average $49,300), instant immunity from volatile gasoline prices, and energy bills that whip anything that slurps from an unleaded nozzle. A half-dozen worthy used EVs are selling for $21,000 to $32,000 on average, according to CarGurus.com. They include the underrated Nissan Ariya ($22,474), a Tesla Model 3 or Model Y (at $25,014 and $27,734), and a Ford Mustang Mach-E for $31,960.

A brand-new 2026 Nissan Leaf starts from $31,485. The third-generation Leaf is markedly improved versus previous frumpy iterations, including up to 303 miles of driving range, doubling the maximum 151 miles of its previous version. Like the Leaf, the 2027 Chevy Bolt is utilitarian rather than exciting. But it’s smartly engineered and in showrooms for $28,995, with a respectable 256-mile driving range, a 150-kilowatt charging rate (tripling its previous dawdling pace), and a standard NACS port to access Tesla’s peerless Supercharger network.

Get the Bolt while it’s hot. Chevrolet plans to build it for just 18 months, before converting its Fairfax, Kansas, factory to churn out compact gasoline SUVs from Chevy and Buick. That pretty much sums up the situation. For many legacy automakers, the response to unleaded inflation will be “This too, shall pass.” Many consumers will echo that sentiment.

Americans love to complain about high gas prices, but they’ve also cooled toward EVs and shown little love for small cars.

Drury notes that, following previous price spikes or brief dalliances with small cars, Americans immediately went back to tried-and-true trucks and SUVs. But perhaps there’s a lesson in here somewhere.

“It’s good to remind yourself that gasoline is a cost, and it is variable, unlike so many things associated with your car,” Drury says.